Rebalancing consumption, restoring equity, and redefining prosperity within planetary limits

As the world teeters on the brink of surpassing the 1.5°C global warming threshold, the new report A Climate for Sufficiency: 1.5-Degree Lifestyles (2025 Update) delivers an unflinching message: the climate crisis is not only a problem of carbon – it is also a matter of fairness, equity and justice. Published by the Hot or Cool Institute, together with partner organisations including the Club of Rome, Sitra, MedWaves and the PS Lifestyles project, the report makes one thing strikingly clear: staying within planetary limits requires rebalancing consumption among and within societies.

The findings are sobering. Across 25 countries, the average lifestyle carbon footprint – the total greenhouse gas emissions caused directly and indirectly by people’s everyday activities, from food and housing to transport, goods and services – stands at 7.1 tonnes of CO₂ equivalent (tCO₂e) per person per year. That is seven times higher than the level compatible with the 1.5°C target. To realign with this target by 2035, lifestyle emissions must fall by 85% globally. For high-income countries, that figure rises to 94%.

Behind these numbers lies a stark divide. The report once again confirms previous findings that the richest 10% of the global population are responsible for around half of all climate-heating emissions, while the poorest half contribute only a fraction. Among the countries analysed, for instance, the United States shows average lifestyle emissions 17 times above the 1.5°C limit. In Australia and Canada, they are 12 and 11 times higher, respectively. Meanwhile, countries such as Nigeria and Kenya are closer to sustainable levels, not because they have already achieved sufficiency living, but largely because large segments of their populations still lack access to adequate housing, reliable energy, and affordable transport. Their challenge is not to cut back, but to develop equitably and sustainably, expanding access to basic services while keeping emissions low. The message is unmistakable: the climate and inequality crises are inseparable, each fuelling the other.

A Series Tracking the Carbon Cost of Lifestyles

A Climate for Sufficiency is the latest in the internationally recognised 1.5-Degree Lifestyles series, launched in 2019 by the Hot or Cool Institute and partners. Each edition has expanded the evidence base and refined our understanding of how everyday consumption patterns – from how we travel and eat to how we build, heat, and furnish our homes – drive emissions and shape our chances of staying within the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.

Earlier reports examined a handful of countries; the 2025 update analyses 25 national contexts across income levels, making it the most comprehensive assessment yet. It builds on country- and sector-specific studies (including fashion, food systems, and high-consuming national contexts such as Germany and Norway) and elaborates on the Fair Consumption Space, which was first introduced in the 2021 global report. The Fair Consumption Space defines the safe and just zone between an ecological ceiling (the maximum lifestyle-related emissions compatible with limiting heating to 1.5°C) and a social floor (the minimum material conditions for dignity, health, wellbeing, and participation).

This 2025 edition develops the concept further and demonstrates how “sufficiency living” can support human flourishing while achieving climate stability. It shows, both in quantitative and in qualitative terms, how aligning provisioning systems and societal aspirations with sufficiency can close the gap between current lifestyle footprints and Paris-compatible levels.

Sufficiency: Asking “How Much Is Enough?”

At its heart, the 1.5-Degree Lifestyles approach is about more than individual behaviour change. It recognises that lifestyles are shaped by the systems and infrastructures around us – what is available, affordable, and socially desirable. People’s choices are constrained and guided by provisioning systems: the entire set of societal arrangements through which people’s needs (or wants) are met. These systems extend far beyond supply chains and business processes, encompassing economic, political, cultural, and institutional structures that collectively determine how societies organise daily life and fulfil human needs.

In most parts of the world today, these systems make unsustainable options, such as private car dependence, energy-intensive housing, or meat-heavy diets, the cheapest and most convenient. Sufficiency flips that script. Instead of focusing solely on technological efficiency (“doing more with less”), it asks “how much is enough?” and redefines prosperity itself.

This approach aims not about deprivation; it is about ensuring wellbeing and fairness within planetary limits. With the remaining carbon budget now critically small, governments face a stark choice: either prioritise meeting essential societal needs or confront the escalating impacts of climate change. Sufficiency offers the bridge between human wellbeing and ecological stability.

The Mediterranean Picture: Where Climate and Inequality Converge

For the Mediterranean region, the findings carry particular resonance. Countries such as Italy, Portugal, France, Slovenia and Greece record average lifestyle footprints of around 6–8 tonnes of CO₂ per person per year, and thus roughly six to eight times above the 1.5°C target. The main culprits are familiar: private car use, frequent flying, and high consumption of meat and dairy products, combined with fossil-heavy heating in buildings.

These patterns reflect a dual challenge for the region. On one hand, Mediterranean economies are highly exposed to climate risks: heatwaves, droughts, and water scarcity threaten agriculture, tourism, and urban liveability. On the other, inequality within and between Mediterranean societies is growing, leaving vulnerable groups least able to adapt. While the report analyses countries only from the northern rim, future work should also examine the southern Mediterranean, where lifestyle carbon footprints are expected to be much lower – not because sufficiency has been achieved, but because many people still lack access to adequate housing, reliable energy, and affordable transport. Understanding these dynamics across the whole region is crucial to designing equitable, low-carbon development pathways that expand access without locking in high emissions.

For Mediterranean businesses and policymakers, this intersection of inequality, consumption, and environmental stress presents both a warning and an opportunity. The region can either remain locked into high-emission, resource-intensive lifestyles, or it can lead a just transition towards sufficiency-based, circular economies that protect livelihoods while reducing pressures on ecosystems.

MedWaves, the UNEP/MAP Regional Activity Centre for Sustainable Consumption and Production and a partner in the report, has long championed this vision. Its work supporting regional SMEs and governments to transition toward justice-based circular business models directly aligns with the sufficiency agenda. The new report offers evidence and a roadmap for how such transitions can simultaneously reduce emissions, build resilience, and strengthen social cohesion.

The Numbers Behind Sufficiency

Providing a “sufficiency living standard” for all, using technologies already available today, would generate around 3.9 tCO₂e per person per year – well below current levels in wealthy countries, but still above the 1.1 tCO₂e target required by 2035 for 1.5°C alignment.

Under a scenario that combines sufficiency living with rapid technological deployment, global average lifestyle emissions could fall to 1.3 tCO₂e by 2035 – a pathway consistent with keeping warming well below 2°C and even 1.7°C, though not yet sufficient for 1.5°C. With further systemic reforms – such as changes to food production, spatial planning to reduce mobility demand, and a shift from private to public provisioning – emissions could be reduced further, bringing the 1.5°C target back within reach.

The report’s data identify two major emission hotspots across all countries: Transport and Nutrition, together accounting for between 32% and 71% of total lifestyle emissions.

In high-income contexts, transport dominates (one-third of emissions), driven by car use and air travel. In middle- and lower-income contexts, food takes a larger share, particularly due to livestock-based diets and fossil-intensive food production systems.

The biggest opportunities for rapid cuts lie in these domains:

• Adopting plant-based or planetary-health diets could save between 1–2.5 tonnes of CO₂ per person annually.
• Reducing car dependency through compact urban design, public transport, and active mobility could deliver similar savings.

These are not marginal gains. Taken together, such shifts could halve emissions in many high-income societies, while improving health, saving money, and strengthening community ties.

Why Inequality Matters

The report’s analysis exposes inequality as both a moral fault line and a practical barrier to climate stability. High-income groups produce the lion’s share of emissions, yet vulnerable populations, both within and between countries, face the harshest impacts.

Achieving climate justice therefore requires “contraction and convergence”: wealthier nations and groups must reduce emissions faster, creating space for billions of people who still lack access to basic services to reach sufficiency levels. This is not only fair, but also necessary. Without equity, global cooperation and political legitimacy for climate action will remain elusive.

In this sense, sufficiency is not about austerity but about redistribution and fairness. By curbing excess at the top and guaranteeing dignity at the bottom, societies can stay within the planetary safe zone while ensuring wellbeing for all.

What It Means for Business

Businesses are often told that sustainability is an “extra cost.” The 1.5-Degree Lifestyles report challenges that view head-on. Businesses thrive when societies are stable and prosperous, not when they are in crisis. Climate disruption, inequality, and resource scarcity threaten business continuity far more than the costs of decarbonisation or circular transitions ever could.

In this sense, sustainability is not a moral add-on but a precondition for long-term economic viability. Companies that align with sufficiency principles – by designing durable, repairable, and resource-light products; by offering services rather than goods; by supporting local value chains and social innovation – can help reshape aspirations for a good life, while remaining competitive in a changing market.

Consumer preferences are also evolving. Younger generations increasingly define “living well” not by material accumulation, but by balance, fairness, and quality of life – values that align naturally with sufficiency and circular economy models. Businesses that help people live well within the planet’s limits will gain both trust and resilience in the transition ahead.

A Path Forward: Key Recommendations

The report concludes that incremental improvements are no longer enough. Meeting the 1.5°C goal requires fundamental transformations in the systems that shape how we live, produce, and consume. It calls for six critical actions at collective and individual levels to stay within socio-ecological limits:

1. Bend back the emissions curve and recommit to 1.5°C. Governments must adopt concrete, verifiable, and time-bound plans – preferably legally binding – with compulsory reductions for business and strong international coordination. “Too late” narratives only serve the status quo; decisive action can still bring the 1.5°C target back within reach.
2. Implement globally coordinated wealth taxes and caps. Fiscal tools such as progressive income, inheritance, and capital gains taxes, along with absolute wealth ceilings, can curb excessive consumption and redistribute resources to fund universal basic services and sufficiency-oriented infrastructure. These are proven levers for reducing inequality and restoring social trust.
3. Shift aspirations and catalyse large-scale social innovation. Redefining prosperity beyond consumerism requires coordinated efforts: from responsible marketing and climate education to phasing out harmful consumption options such as private jets and frequent-flyer programmes. Societies can leverage “social tipping points” to normalise sufficiency-based living.
4. Prioritise provisioning systems that meet fundamental needs. With a shrinking carbon budget, priority must go to food, housing, health, and transport. Investing in affordable housing, nutritious food systems, quality healthcare, and low-carbon mobility ensures carbon is spent where it matters most: on dignity and wellbeing.
5. Empower individuals through the REDuse framework. Citizens can amplify systemic change by Refusing harmful practices (fast fashion, frequent flying), Effusing positive alternatives (active mobility, healthy diets), and Diffusing sufficiency-oriented norms through their communities and workplaces.
6. Establish a Council on Global Ecological Stability and Justice. Anchored within the UN system, such a body would monitor global resource use, coordinate fair transitions, and uphold ecological stability and justice as twin objectives.

A Mediterranean Opportunity

For the Mediterranean region, the sufficiency agenda offers a pragmatic and hopeful path forward. The values of frugality, conviviality, and social participation are deeply rooted in the Mediterranean way of life and epitomised by the Mediterranean diet and reflect a cultural foundation of balance and care. By aligning these long-standing traditions with modern circular economy principles – like resource efficiency, local value chains, and social innovation – Mediterranean societies can become leaders in redefining prosperity and demonstrating how wellbeing and sustainability can thrive together in a climate-safe future.

MedWaves and its partners are already demonstrating how this can happen in practice – by supporting small and medium enterprises that adopt circular business models, by promoting sustainable tourism, and by helping governments design policies that make sustainable lifestyles the easy choice rather than the exception.

The sufficiency transition will not be easy, but it offers a powerful win–win: climate stability and social wellbeing, shared prosperity and planetary health. It reminds us that the question is no longer whether we change, but how and how fairly.

Conclusion: Reclaiming 1.5°C

Preventing warming beyond 1.5°C is not a symbolic goal. It is a guardrail for human safety and a threshold that determines the stability of societies, economies, and ecosystems. The A Climate for Sufficiency report shows that staying within this guardrail is still possible, but only if we act with courage and imagination.

Sufficiency living – meeting everyone’s needs without excess – provides a credible pathway to that future. It challenges us to rethink what it means to prosper, and to redesign the systems that shape our daily lives. For governments, businesses, and citizens across the Mediterranean and beyond, the message is clear: a fair, thriving, 1.5-degree world remains within reach, but only if we choose it, together.

MedWaves is proud to partner with the Hot or Cool Institute on this important annual report which includes a highlight on how Sustainable Consumption and Production (SCP) is a key driver of climate change mitigation, offering valuable insights into how sustainability-oriented policies and citizen-led actions can accelerate effective climate solutions.

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